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Lealtad vs Burgos — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Lealtad
Lealtad
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Burgos
Burgos
12/13/2020Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 8Estadio Las Callejas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Lealtad30%
×Draw37%
Burgos33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lealtad
0.72
Burgos
0.76

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 12 away

creates per match

Lealtad
0.69
Burgos
0.83

allows per match

Lealtad
0.69
Burgos
0.75

finishing

Lealtad+0.00on par
Burgos+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Under
  • Under81
  • Over19

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

73%No
  • No73
  • Yes27

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lealtad ↓

Burgos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–023%
0–117%
0–27%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–14%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (23%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
77%23%1.5
44%56%2.5
19%81%3.5
6%94%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Lealtad or draw
67%
Lealtad or Burgos
63%
Draw or Burgos
70%

Winning margin

Lealtad wins by 2+
9%
Burgos wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Lealtad 1+ goals
51%
Lealtad 2+ goals
16%
Lealtad 3+ goals
4%
Burgos 1+ goals
53%
Burgos 2+ goals
18%
Burgos 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Lealtad (draw refunded)
48%
Burgos (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
15%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lealtad at home — creates 0.69, concedes 0.69 · 13 matches

Burgos away — creates 0.83, concedes 0.75 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lealtad attack 0.69 + Burgos defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.72

Burgos attack 0.83 + Lealtad defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 33%?"

Lealtad scores more
30%
level
37%
Burgos scores more
33%

Burgos at 33% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 33% does not mean "Burgos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lealtad vs Burgos

Lealtad and Burgos drew 0-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on December 13, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Las Callejas in Villaviciosa.