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Lealtad vs Avilés Stadium — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Lealtad
Lealtad
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Avilés Stadium
Avilés Stadium
2/26/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 22Estadio Las Callejas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Lealtad58%
×Draw25%
Avilés Stadium18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lealtad
1.63
Avilés Stadium
0.77

Lealtad creates 112% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 80 away

creates per match

Lealtad
1.50
Avilés Stadium
0.85

allows per match

Lealtad
0.70
Avilés Stadium
1.75

finishing

Lealtad+0.00on par
Avilés Stadium+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lealtad ↓

Avilés Stadium →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Lealtad or draw
82%
Lealtad or Avilés Stadium
75%
Draw or Avilés Stadium
42%

Winning margin

Lealtad wins by 2+
32%
Avilés Stadium wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Lealtad 1+ goals
80%
Lealtad 2+ goals
48%
Lealtad 3+ goals
22%
Avilés Stadium 1+ goals
54%
Avilés Stadium 2+ goals
18%
Avilés Stadium 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Lealtad (draw refunded)
77%
Avilés Stadium (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lealtad at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.70 · 82 matches

Avilés Stadium away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.75 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lealtad attack 1.50 + Avilés Stadium defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.63

Avilés Stadium attack 0.85 + Lealtad defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Lealtad scores more
58%
level
25%
Avilés Stadium scores more
18%

Lealtad at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Lealtad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2: Lealtad 1–0 Avilés Stadium

Lealtad beat Avilés Stadium 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on February 26, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Las Callejas in Villaviciosa.