Leafield Athletic 1–1 Worcester City W

Leafield Athletic

Pens

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Worcester City W

11/23/2025

FA Women's Cup · 2nd Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Leafield Athletic58%

×Draw18%

Worcester City W25%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Leafield AthleticExpected goals in this matchWorcester City W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.88

1.88

Leafield Athletic

2.88

Worcester City W

1.88

Leafield Athletic creates 53% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

3.50

creates per match

2.50

1.25

allows per match

2.25

creates per match

Leafield Athletic

3.50

Worcester City W

2.50

allows per match

Leafield Athletic

1.25

Worcester City W

2.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Leafield Athletic+0.00on par

Worcester City W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over85
Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes80
No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leafield Athletic ↓

Worcester City W →

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–03%

1–15%

1–24%

1–33%

1–41%

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4–03%

4–15%

4–24%

4–33%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

85%15%3.5

69%31%4.5

50%50%

Double chance

Leafield Athletic or draw

75%

Leafield Athletic or Worcester City W

82%

Draw or Worcester City W

42%

Winning margin

Leafield Athletic wins by 2+

38%

Worcester City W wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Leafield Athletic 1+ goals

94%

Leafield Athletic 2+ goals

78%

Leafield Athletic 3+ goals

54%

Worcester City W 1+ goals

85%

Worcester City W 2+ goals

56%

Worcester City W 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Leafield Athletic (draw refunded)

70%

Worcester City W (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

75%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Leafield Athletic at home — creates 3.50, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Worcester City W away — creates 2.50, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Leafield Athletic attack 3.50 + Worcester City W defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.88

Worcester City W attack 2.50 + Leafield Athletic defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 58%?"

Leafield Athletic scores more

58%

level

18%

Worcester City W scores more

25%

Leafield Athletic at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Leafield Athletic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff