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Leafield Athletic vs Swindon Town W — FA Women's Cup 2022

Leafield Athletic
Leafield Athletic
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Swindon Town W
Swindon Town W
12/14/2025FA Women's CupFA Women's Cup · 3rd Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Leafield Athletic56%
×Draw17%
Swindon Town W27%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leafield Athletic
3.25
Swindon Town W
2.29

Leafield Athletic creates 42% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

creates per match

Leafield Athletic
3.50
Swindon Town W
3.33

allows per match

Leafield Athletic
1.25
Swindon Town W
3.00

finishing

Leafield Athletic+0.00on par
Swindon Town W+0.00on par

Total goals

91%Over
  • Over91
  • Under9

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

86%Yes
  • Yes86
  • No14

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leafield Athletic ↓

Swindon Town W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–24%
1–33%
1–42%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–26%
3–35%
3–43%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–25%
4–34%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (6%) · grid covers 75% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
97%3%2.5
91%9%3.5
79%21%4.5
63%37%

Double chance

Leafield Athletic or draw
73%
Leafield Athletic or Swindon Town W
83%
Draw or Swindon Town W
44%

Winning margin

Leafield Athletic wins by 2+
38%
Swindon Town W wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Leafield Athletic 1+ goals
96%
Leafield Athletic 2+ goals
83%
Leafield Athletic 3+ goals
61%
Swindon Town W 1+ goals
90%
Swindon Town W 2+ goals
66%
Swindon Town W 3+ goals
40%

Draw no bet

Leafield Athletic (draw refunded)
67%
Swindon Town W (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
83%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leafield Athletic at home — creates 3.50, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Swindon Town W away — creates 3.33, concedes 3.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leafield Athletic attack 3.50 + Swindon Town W defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 3.25

Swindon Town W attack 3.33 + Leafield Athletic defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 2.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Leafield Athletic scores more
56%
level
17%
Swindon Town W scores more
27%

Leafield Athletic at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Leafield Athletic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Leafield Athletic vs Swindon Town W

Swindon Town W beat Leafield Athletic 3-2 in FA Women's Cup on December 14, 2025.