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Leafield Athletic vs Lye Town W — FA Women's Cup 2019

Leafield Athletic
Leafield Athletic
FT
3 – 0
Lye Town W
Lye Town W
10/13/2024FA Women's CupFA Women's Cup · 3rd Round QualifyingCastle Vale Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Leafield Athletic68%
×Draw16%
Lye Town W16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leafield Athletic
3.10
Lye Town W
1.50

Leafield Athletic creates 107% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

Leafield Athletic
3.20
Lye Town W
1.40

allows per match

Leafield Athletic
1.60
Lye Town W
3.00

finishing

Leafield Athletic+0.00on par
Lye Town W+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leafield Athletic ↓

Lye Town W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–16%
4–25%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
66%34%4.5
47%53%

Double chance

Leafield Athletic or draw
84%
Leafield Athletic or Lye Town W
84%
Draw or Lye Town W
32%

Winning margin

Leafield Athletic wins by 2+
49%
Lye Town W wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Leafield Athletic 1+ goals
95%
Leafield Athletic 2+ goals
81%
Leafield Athletic 3+ goals
58%
Lye Town W 1+ goals
78%
Lye Town W 2+ goals
44%
Lye Town W 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Leafield Athletic (draw refunded)
81%
Lye Town W (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leafield Athletic at home — creates 3.20, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

Lye Town W away — creates 1.40, concedes 3.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leafield Athletic attack 3.20 + Lye Town W defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 3.10

Lye Town W attack 1.40 + Leafield Athletic defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Leafield Athletic scores more
68%
level
16%
Lye Town W scores more
16%

Leafield Athletic at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Leafield Athletic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Leafield Athletic vs Lye Town W

Leafield Athletic beat Lye Town W 3-0 in FA Women's Cup on October 13, 2024.

The match was played at Castle Vale Stadium in Birmingham.