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Leafield Athletic vs Lincoln City W — FA Women's Cup 2019

Leafield Athletic
Leafield Athletic
FT
2 – 3
Lincoln City W
Lincoln City W
12/5/2021FA Women's CupFA Women's Cup · 2nd RoundRumbush Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Leafield Athletic65%
×Draw16%
Lincoln City W19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leafield Athletic
3.29
Lincoln City W
1.80

Leafield Athletic creates 83% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 8 away

creates per match

Leafield Athletic
3.20
Lincoln City W
2.00

allows per match

Leafield Athletic
1.60
Lincoln City W
3.38

finishing

Leafield Athletic+0.00on par
Lincoln City W+0.00on par

Total goals

88%Over
  • Over88
  • Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

80%Yes
  • Yes80
  • No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leafield Athletic ↓

Lincoln City W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–23%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–26%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–03%
4–16%
4–25%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (7%) · grid covers 78% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
88%12%3.5
73%27%4.5
55%45%

Double chance

Leafield Athletic or draw
81%
Leafield Athletic or Lincoln City W
84%
Draw or Lincoln City W
35%

Winning margin

Leafield Athletic wins by 2+
46%
Lincoln City W wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Leafield Athletic 1+ goals
96%
Leafield Athletic 2+ goals
83%
Leafield Athletic 3+ goals
62%
Lincoln City W 1+ goals
83%
Lincoln City W 2+ goals
54%
Lincoln City W 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Leafield Athletic (draw refunded)
77%
Lincoln City W (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
76%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leafield Athletic at home — creates 3.20, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

Lincoln City W away — creates 2.00, concedes 3.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leafield Athletic attack 3.20 + Lincoln City W defence 3.38 → ÷2 → 3.29

Lincoln City W attack 2.00 + Leafield Athletic defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Leafield Athletic scores more
65%
level
16%
Lincoln City W scores more
19%

Leafield Athletic at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Leafield Athletic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Leafield Athletic vs Lincoln City W

Lincoln City W beat Leafield Athletic 3-2 in FA Women's Cup on December 5, 2021.

The match was played at Rumbush Stadium in Solihull, West Midlands.