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Le Puy Foot vs Vierzon FC — Coupe de France 2018

Le Puy Foot
Le Puy Foot
Pens
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Vierzon FC
Vierzon FCadvanced
I. Sangaré 120+8' (pen)
J. Meyer 120+4' (pen)
M. Ben Fredj 120+2' (pen)
I. Bandu 120+9' (pen)
M. Koné 120+7' (pen)
K. N'Guessan 120+5' (pen)
A. Khechim 120+3' (pen)
K. Fabien 120+1' (pen)
1/22/2023Coupe de FranceCoupe de France · Round of 32Stade Charles Massot

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Le Puy Foot30%
×Draw23%
Vierzon FC47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Le Puy Foot
1.40
Vierzon FC
1.80

Vierzon FC creates 29% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 5 away

creates per match

Le Puy Foot
1.80
Vierzon FC
2.80

allows per match

Le Puy Foot
0.80
Vierzon FC
1.00

finishing

Le Puy Foot+0.00on par
Vierzon FC+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Le Puy Foot ↓

Vierzon FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Le Puy Foot or draw
53%
Le Puy Foot or Vierzon FC
77%
Draw or Vierzon FC
70%

Winning margin

Le Puy Foot wins by 2+
13%
Vierzon FC wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Le Puy Foot 1+ goals
75%
Le Puy Foot 2+ goals
41%
Le Puy Foot 3+ goals
17%
Vierzon FC 1+ goals
83%
Vierzon FC 2+ goals
54%
Vierzon FC 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Le Puy Foot (draw refunded)
39%
Vierzon FC (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Le Puy Foot at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.80 · 10 matches

Vierzon FC away — creates 2.80, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Le Puy Foot attack 1.80 + Vierzon FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.40

Vierzon FC attack 2.80 + Le Puy Foot defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Le Puy Foot scores more
30%
level
23%
Vierzon FC scores more
47%

Vierzon FC at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Vierzon FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6
T. BouriaudLe Puy FootLe Puy Foot · M
8.7

Match Events

65'
J. Meyer← A. Lembezat
65'
L. Baal← S. Delaye
74'
I. Bandu← I. Camara
84'
I. Sangaré← O. Dadoune
85'
A. Khechim← T. Salibur
87'
N. Chamoueni← K. NGuessan
120+1'
K. FabienPenalty
120+2'
M. Ben FredjPenalty
120+3'
A. KhechimPenalty
120+4'
J. MeyerPenalty
120+5'
K. N'GuessanPenalty
120+6'
Y. M'BembaMissed penalty
120+7'
M. KonéPenalty
120+8'
I. SangaréPenalty
120+9'
I. BanduPenalty

Possession

70%Le

Shots

19Le

Pass accuracy

60%Le

Statistics

LeVierzon
Overview
70%Possession30%
19Total Shots9
7Corners8
7Fouls13
Shots
19Total Shots9
4On Target1
6Off Target5
9Blocked3
5Inside Box5
14Outside Box4
Passing
70%Possession30%
559Total Passes231
460Accurate Passes125
82%Pass Accuracy54%
Goalkeeping
1Saves4
Discipline
7Fouls13
4Offsides0

Match Recap: Le Puy Foot vs Vierzon FC

Le Puy Foot and Vierzon FC drew 0-0 in Coupe de France on January 22, 2023.

Goals: K. Fabien (120+1' pen), M. Ben Fredj (120+2' pen), A. Khechim (120+3' pen), J. Meyer (120+4' pen), K. N'Guessan (120+5' pen), M. Koné (120+7' pen), I. Sangaré (120+8' pen), I. Bandu (120+9' pen).

Le Puy Foot controlled possession (70%) and registered 19 shots to 9.

The match was played at Stade Charles Massot in Espaly-Saint-Marcel.