Le Puy Foot 2–1 Dunkerque: Result & Stats

Le Puy Foot

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Dunkerque

1/20/2024

Coupe de France · Round of 32Stade Charles Massot

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Le Puy Foot37%

×Draw25%

Dunkerque37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Le Puy FootExpected goals in this matchDunkerque

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

Le Puy Foot

1.40

Dunkerque

1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 16 away

1.80

creates per match

2.00

0.80

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Le Puy Foot

1.80

Dunkerque

2.00

allows per match

Le Puy Foot

0.80

Dunkerque

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Le Puy Foot+0.00on par

Dunkerque+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Le Puy Foot ↓

Dunkerque →

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Le Puy Foot or draw

63%

Le Puy Foot or Dunkerque

75%

Draw or Dunkerque

63%

Winning margin

Le Puy Foot wins by 2+

17%

Dunkerque wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Le Puy Foot 1+ goals

75%

Le Puy Foot 2+ goals

41%

Le Puy Foot 3+ goals

17%

Dunkerque 1+ goals

75%

Dunkerque 2+ goals

41%

Dunkerque 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Le Puy Foot (draw refunded)

50%

Dunkerque (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Le Puy Foot at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.80 · 10 matches

Dunkerque away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Le Puy Foot attack 1.80 + Dunkerque defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.40

Dunkerque attack 2.00 + Le Puy Foot defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 37%?"

Le Puy Foot scores more

37%

level

25%

Dunkerque scores more

37%

Le Puy Foot at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Le Puy Foot will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff