Le Puy Foot 1–0 Bordeaux: Result & Stats

Le Puy Foot

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Bordeaux

M. Adelaide 90' (pen)

12/21/2025

Coupe de France · Round of 64Stade Charles Massot

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Le Puy Foot42%

×Draw26%

Bordeaux32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Le Puy FootExpected goals in this matchBordeaux

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.20

Le Puy Foot

1.40

Bordeaux

1.20

Le Puy Foot creates 17% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 10 away

1.80

creates per match

1.60

0.80

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Le Puy Foot

1.80

Bordeaux

1.60

allows per match

Le Puy Foot

0.80

Bordeaux

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Le Puy Foot+0.00on par

Bordeaux+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Le Puy Foot ↓

Bordeaux →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Le Puy Foot or draw

68%

Le Puy Foot or Bordeaux

74%

Draw or Bordeaux

58%

Winning margin

Le Puy Foot wins by 2+

20%

Bordeaux wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Le Puy Foot 1+ goals

75%

Le Puy Foot 2+ goals

41%

Le Puy Foot 3+ goals

17%

Bordeaux 1+ goals

70%

Bordeaux 2+ goals

34%

Bordeaux 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Le Puy Foot (draw refunded)

56%

Bordeaux (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Le Puy Foot at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.80 · 10 matches

Bordeaux away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.00 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Le Puy Foot attack 1.80 + Bordeaux defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.40

Bordeaux attack 1.60 + Le Puy Foot defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Le Puy Foot scores more

42%

level

26%

Bordeaux scores more

32%

Le Puy Foot at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Le Puy Foot will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

A. Soualhia

Le Puy Foot · D

7.9

Match Events

-5'

26'

30'

41'

59'

62'

62'

S. Shamal← S. Bahassa

68'

Luderic Etonde

68'

Luderic Etonde

70'

E. Goumot← C. Doumbia

70'

P. Wade← S. Akkal

80'

Ismail Bouleghcha

84'

M. Adelaide← E. Seidou

87'

Clement Rodrigues

90'

Oualid El Hajjam

90+4'

N. Besse← M. Villette

90+4'

L. Jousselin← T. Diagouraga

90+4'

L. Rizaldos← R. Droehnle

90'

M. AdelaidePenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LeBordeaux

Overview

56%Possession44%

14Total Shots15

4Corners2

9Fouls12

Shots

14Total Shots15

3On Target3

8Off Target6

3Blocked6

9Inside Box10

5Outside Box5

Passing

56%Possession44%

481Total Passes378

412Accurate Passes283

86%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

9Fouls12

5Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards2

1Offsides3