Le Poiré sur Vie vs St-Philbert Gd Lieu — League #462 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 3+ matches
Le Poiré sur Vie44%
St-Philbert Gd Lieu27%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Le Poiré sur Vie creates 38% more chances
Season form · 4 home / 3 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under65
- Over35
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No59
- Yes41
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Le Poiré sur Vie ↓
Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Le Poiré sur Vie at home — creates 0.75, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches
St-Philbert Gd Lieu away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Le Poiré sur Vie attack 0.75 + St-Philbert Gd Lieu defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.21
St-Philbert Gd Lieu attack 1.00 + Le Poiré sur Vie defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.88
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 44%?"
Le Poiré sur Vie at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 44% does not mean "Le Poiré sur Vie will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Le Poiré sur Vie host St-Philbert Gd Lieu on Saturday, 22 November 2025 at 17:00. The match is part of the League #462 2026/2027 season.
League #462: Le Poiré sur Vie 0–2 St-Philbert Gd Lieu
St-Philbert Gd Lieu beat Le Poiré sur Vie 2-0 in League #462 on November 22, 2025.
The match was played at Stade de l'Idonnière in Le Poiré-sur-Vie.