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Le Mans vs Valenciennes — Coupe de France 2018

Le Mans
Le Mansadvanced
Pens
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Valenciennes
Valenciennes
B. Oggad 120+10' (pen)
V. Burlet 120+8' (pen)
D. Guèye 120+5' (pen)
T. Eyoum 120+2' (pen)
A. Vula 28'
L. Buadés 120+9' (pen)
S. Sissoko 120+7' (pen)
M. Oyewusi 120+3' (pen), 82'
1/14/2025Coupe de FranceCoupe de France · Round of 32Stade Marie-Marvingt

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Le Mans33%
×Draw23%
Valenciennes45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Le Mans
1.54
Valenciennes
1.83

Valenciennes creates 19% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 15 away

creates per match

Le Mans
2.00
Valenciennes
1.67

allows per match

Le Mans
2.00
Valenciennes
1.07

finishing

Le Mans+0.00on par
Valenciennes+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Le Mans ↓

Valenciennes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Le Mans or draw
55%
Le Mans or Valenciennes
77%
Draw or Valenciennes
67%

Winning margin

Le Mans wins by 2+
15%
Valenciennes wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Le Mans 1+ goals
79%
Le Mans 2+ goals
45%
Le Mans 3+ goals
20%
Valenciennes 1+ goals
84%
Valenciennes 2+ goals
54%
Valenciennes 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Le Mans (draw refunded)
42%
Valenciennes (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Le Mans at home — creates 2.00, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

Valenciennes away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Le Mans attack 2.00 + Valenciennes defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.54

Valenciennes attack 1.67 + Le Mans defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Le Mans scores more
33%
level
23%
Valenciennes scores more
45%

Valenciennes at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Valenciennes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
P. CamaraValenciennesValenciennes · G
7.6

Match Events

7'
Z. Lamgahez
9'
D. Traore
28'
A. Vula↳ D. Guèye
46'
S. Yohou← Z. Lamgahez
59'
A. Camblan← D. Traoré
60'
M. Oyewusi← C. Antoine
68'
A. Ouchen← G. Bernardeau
69'
A. Rabillard← A. Vula
72'
L. Buadés← R. Boissier
73'
J. Masson← J. Moursou
73'
B. Mpata Lama← S. Basse
76'
B. Mpata
82'
M. Oyewusi
84'
H. Voyer
84'
J. Masson
86'
A. Oudjani← M. Rossignol
90+2'
B. Oggad← A. Ribelin
120+1'
A. CamblanMissed penalty
120+4'
A. RabillardMissed penalty
120+6'
M. LilepoMissed penalty
120+1'
A. CamblanMissed penalty
120+4'
A. RabillardMissed penalty
120+6'
M. LilepoMissed penalty
120+4'
A. RabillardMissed penalty
120+6'
M. LilepoMissed penalty
120+1'
A. CamblanMissed penalty
120+6'
M. LilepoMissed penalty
120+4'
A. RabillardMissed penalty
120+1'
A. CamblanMissed penalty
120+6'
M. LilepoMissed penalty
120+4'
A. RabillardMissed penalty
120+1'
A. CamblanMissed penalty
120+1'
A. CamblanMissed penalty
120+2'
T. EyoumPenalty
120+3'
M. OyewusiPenalty
120+4'
A. RabillardMissed penalty
120+5'
D. GuèyePenalty
120+6'
M. LilepoMissed penalty
120+7'
S. SissokoPenalty
120+8'
V. BurletPenalty
120+9'
L. BuadésPenalty
120+10'
B. OggadPenalty

Possession

55%Le

Shots

12Le

Pass accuracy

51%Le

Statistics

LeValenciennes
Overview
55%Possession45%
12Total Shots7
6Corners3
4Fouls10
Shots
12Total Shots7
7On Target3
4Off Target4
1Blocked0
7Inside Box6
5Outside Box1
Passing
55%Possession45%
496Total Passes402
391Accurate Passes311
79%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
2Saves6
Discipline
4Fouls10
2Yellow Cards3
1Offsides2

Coupe de France: Le Mans 1–1 Valenciennes

Le Mans and Valenciennes drew 1-1 in Coupe de France on January 14, 2025.

Goals: A. Vula (28'), M. Oyewusi (82', 120+3' pen), T. Eyoum (120+2' pen), D. Guèye (120+5' pen), S. Sissoko (120+7' pen), V. Burlet (120+8' pen), L. Buadés (120+9' pen), B. Oggad (120+10' pen).

Le Mans controlled possession (55%) and registered 12 shots to 7.

The match was played at Stade Marie-Marvingt in Le Mans.