Le Mans 1–2 RED Star FC 93: Result & Stats

Le Mans

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

RED Star FC 93

9/15/2023

League #63 · Round 6Stade Marie-Marvingt

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Le Mans30%

×Draw25%

RED Star FC 9345%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Le MansExpected goals in this matchRED Star FC 93

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.58

Le Mans

1.25

RED Star FC 93

1.58

RED Star FC 93 creates 26% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 6 away

1.17

creates per match

1.50

1.67

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Le Mans

1.17

RED Star FC 93

1.50

allows per match

Le Mans

1.67

RED Star FC 93

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Le Mans+0.00on par

RED Star FC 93+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Le Mans ↓

RED Star FC 93 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Le Mans or draw

55%

Le Mans or RED Star FC 93

75%

Draw or RED Star FC 93

70%

Winning margin

Le Mans wins by 2+

13%

RED Star FC 93 wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Le Mans 1+ goals

71%

Le Mans 2+ goals

36%

Le Mans 3+ goals

13%

RED Star FC 93 1+ goals

79%

RED Star FC 93 2+ goals

47%

RED Star FC 93 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Le Mans (draw refunded)

40%

RED Star FC 93 (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Le Mans at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.67 · 12 matches

RED Star FC 93 away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Le Mans attack 1.17 + RED Star FC 93 defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.25

RED Star FC 93 attack 1.50 + Le Mans defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Le Mans scores more

30%

level

25%

RED Star FC 93 scores more

45%

RED Star FC 93 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "RED Star FC 93 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff