Le Mans vs Ajaccio — Ligue 2 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 38+ matches
Le Mans43%
Ajaccio27%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Le Mans creates 36% more chances
Season form · 38 home / 104 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under66
- Over34
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No59
- Yes41
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Le Mans ↓
Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Le Mans at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.00 · 38 matches
Ajaccio away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.24 · 104 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Le Mans attack 1.16 + Ajaccio defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.20
Ajaccio attack 0.76 + Le Mans defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.88
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 43%?"
Le Mans at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 43% does not mean "Le Mans will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Head to Head
2 previous meetings · small sample
Estac TroyesLe Mans
Saint Etienne
Rodez
Reims
RED Star FC 93
Annecy
Montpellier
PAU
Dunkerque
Guingamp
Grenoble
Clermont Foot
Nancy
Boulogne
Laval
Bastia
Amiens
RouenIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Le Mans host Ajaccio on Friday, 20 September 2019 at 18:00. The match is part of the Ligue 2 2018/2019 season.
Match Recap: Le Mans vs Ajaccio
Ajaccio beat Le Mans 4-2 in Ligue 2 on September 20, 2019.
Goals: S. Diarra (47', 66'), G. Courtet (58'), M. Tramoni (63'), H. Cuypers (68', 85').
Ajaccio controlled possession (57%) and registered 13 shots to 17.
The match was played at MMArena (Le Mans) in Le Mans.