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Le Havre W vs Paris Saint Germain W — Feminine Division 1 2018

Le Havre W
Le Havre W
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Paris Saint Germain W
Paris Saint Germain W
1/17/2026Feminine Division 1Feminine Division 1 · Round 13Stade Océane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Le Havre W14%
×Draw18%
Paris Saint Germain W68%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Le Havre W
0.94
Paris Saint Germain W
2.33

Paris Saint Germain W creates 148% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 86 away

creates per match

Le Havre W
1.07
Paris Saint Germain W
2.62

allows per match

Le Havre W
2.04
Paris Saint Germain W
0.81

finishing

Le Havre W+0.00on par
Paris Saint Germain W+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Le Havre W ↓

Paris Saint Germain W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–210%
0–38%
0–45%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–210%
1–38%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Le Havre W or draw
32%
Le Havre W or Paris Saint Germain W
82%
Draw or Paris Saint Germain W
86%

Winning margin

Le Havre W wins by 2+
4%
Paris Saint Germain W wins by 2+
45%

Team goals

Le Havre W 1+ goals
61%
Le Havre W 2+ goals
24%
Le Havre W 3+ goals
7%
Paris Saint Germain W 1+ goals
90%
Paris Saint Germain W 2+ goals
67%
Paris Saint Germain W 3+ goals
41%

Draw no bet

Le Havre W (draw refunded)
17%
Paris Saint Germain W (draw refunded)
83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Le Havre W at home — creates 1.07, concedes 2.04 · 55 matches

Paris Saint Germain W away — creates 2.62, concedes 0.81 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Le Havre W attack 1.07 + Paris Saint Germain W defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.94

Paris Saint Germain W attack 2.62 + Le Havre W defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 2.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Le Havre W scores more
14%
level
18%
Paris Saint Germain W scores more
68%

Paris Saint Germain W at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Paris Saint Germain W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Feminine Division 1: Le Havre W 0–4 Paris Saint Germain W

Paris Saint Germain W beat Le Havre W 4-0 in Feminine Division 1 on January 17, 2026.

The match was played at Stade Océane in Le Havre.