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Le Havre W vs FC Fleury 91 W — Feminine Division 1 2018

Le Havre W
Le Havre W
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
FC Fleury 91 W
FC Fleury 91 W
4/24/2024Feminine Division 1Feminine Division 1 · Round 21Stade Océane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Le Havre W30%
×Draw24%
FC Fleury 91 W46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Le Havre W
1.32
FC Fleury 91 W
1.69

FC Fleury 91 W creates 28% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 84 away

creates per match

Le Havre W
1.07
FC Fleury 91 W
1.33

allows per match

Le Havre W
2.04
FC Fleury 91 W
1.57

finishing

Le Havre W+0.00on par
FC Fleury 91 W+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Le Havre W ↓

FC Fleury 91 W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Le Havre W or draw
54%
Le Havre W or FC Fleury 91 W
76%
Draw or FC Fleury 91 W
70%

Winning margin

Le Havre W wins by 2+
13%
FC Fleury 91 W wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Le Havre W 1+ goals
73%
Le Havre W 2+ goals
38%
Le Havre W 3+ goals
15%
FC Fleury 91 W 1+ goals
82%
FC Fleury 91 W 2+ goals
50%
FC Fleury 91 W 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Le Havre W (draw refunded)
39%
FC Fleury 91 W (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Le Havre W at home — creates 1.07, concedes 2.04 · 55 matches

FC Fleury 91 W away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.57 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Le Havre W attack 1.07 + FC Fleury 91 W defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.32

FC Fleury 91 W attack 1.33 + Le Havre W defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Le Havre W scores more
30%
level
24%
FC Fleury 91 W scores more
46%

FC Fleury 91 W at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "FC Fleury 91 W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Le Havre W vs FC Fleury 91 W

FC Fleury 91 W beat Le Havre W 3-1 in Feminine Division 1 on April 24, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Océane in Le Havre.