Le Havre 1–0 Toulouse: Result & Stats | Ligue 1

Le Havre

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Toulouse

C. Opéri 60'

3/10/2024

Ligue 1 · Round 25Stade Océane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 24+ matches

Le Havre34%

×Draw26%

Toulouse40%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Le HavreExpected goals in this matchToulouse

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.39

Le Havre

1.27

Toulouse

1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 24 home / 29 away

1.22

creates per match

1.36

1.41

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Le Havre

1.22

Toulouse

1.36

allows per match

Le Havre

1.41

Toulouse

1.32

-0.01on par

finishing

+0.12scores more than expected

finishing

Le Havre-0.01on par

Toulouse+0.12scores more

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Le Havre ↓

Toulouse →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Le Havre or draw

60%

Le Havre or Toulouse

74%

Draw or Toulouse

66%

Winning margin

Le Havre wins by 2+

15%

Toulouse wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Le Havre 1+ goals

72%

Le Havre 2+ goals

36%

Le Havre 3+ goals

14%

Toulouse 1+ goals

75%

Toulouse 2+ goals

40%

Toulouse 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Le Havre (draw refunded)

46%

Toulouse (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Le Havre at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.41 · 24 matches

Toulouse away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.32 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Le Havre attack 1.22 + Toulouse defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.27

Toulouse attack 1.36 + Le Havre defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Le Havre scores more

34%

level

26%

Toulouse scores more

40%

Toulouse at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Toulouse will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27

C. Opéri

Le Havre · D

8.7

Match Events

54'

K. Keben← R. Nicolaisen

60'

C. Opéri

65'

E. Sabbi← M. Bayo

68'

F. Magri← A. Dønnum

77'

C. Cásseres← V. Sierro

77'

S. Babicka← W. Kamanzi

78'

Y. Kechta← O. Targhalline

78'

L. Négo← J. Casimir

84'

Christopher Operi

87'

S. Ngoura← D. Kuzyaev

87'

R. Ndiaye← A. Ayew

90+5'

Steve Ngoura

90+5'

Kévin Keben Biakolo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LeToulouse

Overview

50%Possession50%

12Total Shots5

1.18Expected Goals (xG)0.29

3Corners3

12Fouls17

Shots

12Total Shots5

4On Target0

4Off Target3

4Blocked2

7Inside Box4

5Outside Box1

Passing

50%Possession50%

413Total Passes402

330Accurate Passes326

80%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls17

2Yellow Cards1

1Offsides3