Le Havre 2–1 Dunkerque: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Le Havre

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Dunkerque

H. Abdelli 89', 19'

M. Majouga 71'

4/9/2022

Ligue 2 · Round 32Stade Océane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Le Havre44%

×Draw28%

Dunkerque28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Le HavreExpected goals in this matchDunkerque

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

0.98

Le Havre

1.31

Dunkerque

0.98

Le Havre creates 34% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 92 away

1.15

creates per match

1.03

0.93

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Le Havre

1.15

Dunkerque

1.03

allows per match

Le Havre

0.93

Dunkerque

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Le Havre+0.00on par

Dunkerque+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Le Havre ↓

Dunkerque →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Le Havre or draw

72%

Le Havre or Dunkerque

72%

Draw or Dunkerque

56%

Winning margin

Le Havre wins by 2+

20%

Dunkerque wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Le Havre 1+ goals

73%

Le Havre 2+ goals

38%

Le Havre 3+ goals

14%

Dunkerque 1+ goals

62%

Dunkerque 2+ goals

26%

Dunkerque 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Le Havre (draw refunded)

61%

Dunkerque (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Le Havre at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.93 · 99 matches

Dunkerque away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.48 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Le Havre attack 1.15 + Dunkerque defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.31

Dunkerque attack 1.03 + Le Havre defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Le Havre scores more

44%

level

28%

Dunkerque scores more

28%

Le Havre at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Le Havre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

H. Abdelli

Le Havre · M

8.5

Match Events

19'

H. Abdelli↳ J. Thiaré

41'

43'

50'

50'

53'

K. Rocheteau← E. Bardeli

63'

Jeremy Huysman

67'

A. Wahib← I. Boura

67'

M. Kikonda← A. Niané

67'

M. Majouga← A. Salama

68'

Himad Abdelli

68'

A. Richardson← J. Fontaine

71'

M. Majouga↳ M. Ouadah

83'

É. Dudouit← I. Gomis

83'

D. Trichard← J. Huysman

89'

H. Abdelli↳ A. Wahib

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LeDunkerque

Overview

57%Possession43%

10Total Shots18

3Corners8

9Fouls17

Shots

10Total Shots18

6On Target7

2Off Target5

2Blocked6

7Inside Box15

3Outside Box3

Passing

57%Possession43%

468Total Passes335

372Accurate Passes247

79%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

6Saves3

Discipline

9Fouls17

3Yellow Cards2

1Offsides2