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Le Havre vs Bastia — Ligue 2 2018

Le Havre
Le Havre
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Bastia
Bastia
10/8/2022Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 11Stade Océane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Le Havre42%
×Draw28%
Bastia30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Le Havre
1.25
Bastia
1.00

Le Havre creates 25% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 91 away

creates per match

Le Havre
1.17
Bastia
1.03

allows per match

Le Havre
0.97
Bastia
1.33

finishing

Le Havre+0.00on par
Bastia+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Le Havre ↓

Bastia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Le Havre or draw
70%
Le Havre or Bastia
72%
Draw or Bastia
58%

Winning margin

Le Havre wins by 2+
19%
Bastia wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Le Havre 1+ goals
71%
Le Havre 2+ goals
36%
Le Havre 3+ goals
13%
Bastia 1+ goals
63%
Bastia 2+ goals
26%
Bastia 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Le Havre (draw refunded)
59%
Bastia (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Le Havre at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.97 · 92 matches

Bastia away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.33 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Le Havre attack 1.17 + Bastia defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.25

Bastia attack 1.03 + Le Havre defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Le Havre scores more
42%
level
28%
Bastia scores more
30%

Le Havre at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Le Havre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Le Havre vs Bastia

Le Havre beat Bastia 3-0 in Ligue 2 on October 8, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Océane in Le Havre.