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LDU Portoviejo vs El Nacional — Liga Pro Serie B 2026

LDU Portoviejo
LDU Portoviejo
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
El Nacional
El Nacional
3/28/2026Liga Pro Serie BLiga Pro Serie B · Round 2Estadio Reales Tamarindos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

LDU Portoviejo51%
×Draw26%
El Nacional23%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

LDU Portoviejo
1.50
El Nacional
0.90

LDU Portoviejo creates 67% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 45 away

creates per match

LDU Portoviejo
1.55
El Nacional
0.93

allows per match

LDU Portoviejo
0.87
El Nacional
1.44

finishing

LDU Portoviejo+0.00on par
El Nacional+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LDU Portoviejo ↓

El Nacional →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

LDU Portoviejo or draw
77%
LDU Portoviejo or El Nacional
74%
Draw or El Nacional
49%

Winning margin

LDU Portoviejo wins by 2+
26%
El Nacional wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

LDU Portoviejo 1+ goals
78%
LDU Portoviejo 2+ goals
44%
LDU Portoviejo 3+ goals
19%
El Nacional 1+ goals
59%
El Nacional 2+ goals
23%
El Nacional 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

LDU Portoviejo (draw refunded)
69%
El Nacional (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LDU Portoviejo at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.87 · 67 matches

El Nacional away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.44 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LDU Portoviejo attack 1.55 + El Nacional defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.50

El Nacional attack 0.93 + LDU Portoviejo defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

LDU Portoviejo scores more
51%
level
26%
El Nacional scores more
23%

LDU Portoviejo at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "LDU Portoviejo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

LDU Portoviejo 2 – 1 El Nacional

LDU Portoviejo beat El Nacional 2-1 in Liga Pro Serie B on March 28, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Reales Tamarindos in Portoviejo.