Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

LDU Portoviejo vs Clan Juvenil — Liga Pro Serie B 2018

LDU Portoviejo
LDU Portoviejo
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Clan Juvenil
Clan Juvenil
11/25/2018Liga Pro Serie BLiga Pro Serie B · Round 44Estadio Reales Tamarindos (Portoviejo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

LDU Portoviejo64%
×Draw22%
Clan Juvenil14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

LDU Portoviejo
1.89
Clan Juvenil
0.76

LDU Portoviejo creates 149% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 40 away

creates per match

LDU Portoviejo
1.55
Clan Juvenil
0.65

allows per match

LDU Portoviejo
0.87
Clan Juvenil
2.23

finishing

LDU Portoviejo+0.00on par
Clan Juvenil+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LDU Portoviejo ↓

Clan Juvenil →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

LDU Portoviejo or draw
86%
LDU Portoviejo or Clan Juvenil
78%
Draw or Clan Juvenil
36%

Winning margin

LDU Portoviejo wins by 2+
38%
Clan Juvenil wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

LDU Portoviejo 1+ goals
85%
LDU Portoviejo 2+ goals
56%
LDU Portoviejo 3+ goals
29%
Clan Juvenil 1+ goals
53%
Clan Juvenil 2+ goals
18%
Clan Juvenil 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

LDU Portoviejo (draw refunded)
82%
Clan Juvenil (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LDU Portoviejo at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.87 · 67 matches

Clan Juvenil away — creates 0.65, concedes 2.23 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LDU Portoviejo attack 1.55 + Clan Juvenil defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.89

Clan Juvenil attack 0.65 + LDU Portoviejo defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

LDU Portoviejo scores more
64%
level
22%
Clan Juvenil scores more
14%

LDU Portoviejo at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "LDU Portoviejo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: LDU Portoviejo vs Clan Juvenil

LDU Portoviejo beat Clan Juvenil 3-1 in Liga Pro Serie B on November 25, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Reales Tamarindos (Portoviejo).