LDU Loja 2–1 Santa Rita: Result & Stats

LDU Loja

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Santa Rita

8/25/2019

Liga Pro Serie B · Round 24Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne (Loja)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

LDU Loja42%

×Draw31%

Santa Rita27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LDU LojaExpected goals in this matchSanta Rita

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.12

0.84

LDU Loja

1.12

Santa Rita

0.84

LDU Loja creates 33% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 49 away

1.00

creates per match

0.69

1.00

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

LDU Loja

1.00

Santa Rita

0.69

allows per match

LDU Loja

1.00

Santa Rita

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

LDU Loja+0.00on par

Santa Rita+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LDU Loja ↓

Santa Rita →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

LDU Loja or draw

73%

LDU Loja or Santa Rita

69%

Draw or Santa Rita

58%

Winning margin

LDU Loja wins by 2+

17%

Santa Rita wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

LDU Loja 1+ goals

67%

LDU Loja 2+ goals

31%

LDU Loja 3+ goals

10%

Santa Rita 1+ goals

57%

Santa Rita 2+ goals

21%

Santa Rita 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

LDU Loja (draw refunded)

61%

Santa Rita (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LDU Loja at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 40 matches

Santa Rita away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.24 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LDU Loja attack 1.00 + Santa Rita defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.12

Santa Rita attack 0.69 + LDU Loja defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

LDU Loja scores more

42%

level

31%

Santa Rita scores more

27%

LDU Loja at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "LDU Loja will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff