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LDU Loja vs Puerto Quito — Liga Pro Serie B 2018

LDU Loja
LDU Loja
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Puerto Quito
Puerto Quito
9/10/2019Liga Pro Serie BLiga Pro Serie B · Round 26Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne (Loja)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

LDU Loja43%
×Draw30%
Puerto Quito27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

LDU Loja
1.18
Puerto Quito
0.88

LDU Loja creates 34% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 85 away

creates per match

LDU Loja
1.00
Puerto Quito
0.76

allows per match

LDU Loja
1.00
Puerto Quito
1.36

finishing

LDU Loja+0.00on par
Puerto Quito+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LDU Loja ↓

Puerto Quito →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

LDU Loja or draw
73%
LDU Loja or Puerto Quito
70%
Draw or Puerto Quito
57%

Winning margin

LDU Loja wins by 2+
18%
Puerto Quito wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

LDU Loja 1+ goals
69%
LDU Loja 2+ goals
33%
LDU Loja 3+ goals
12%
Puerto Quito 1+ goals
59%
Puerto Quito 2+ goals
22%
Puerto Quito 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

LDU Loja (draw refunded)
61%
Puerto Quito (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LDU Loja at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 40 matches

Puerto Quito away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.36 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LDU Loja attack 1.00 + Puerto Quito defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.18

Puerto Quito attack 0.76 + LDU Loja defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

LDU Loja scores more
43%
level
30%
Puerto Quito scores more
27%

LDU Loja at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "LDU Loja will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

LDU Loja 1 – 0 Puerto Quito

LDU Loja beat Puerto Quito 1-0 in Liga Pro Serie B on September 10, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne (Loja).