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LDU Loja vs Orense SC — Liga Pro Serie B 2018

LDU Loja
LDU Loja
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Orense SC
Orense SC
8/2/2019Liga Pro Serie BLiga Pro Serie B · Round 21Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne (Loja)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

LDU Loja37%
×Draw29%
Orense SC34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

LDU Loja
1.16
Orense SC
1.09

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 40 home / 42 away

creates per match

LDU Loja
1.00
Orense SC
1.19

allows per match

LDU Loja
1.00
Orense SC
1.31

finishing

LDU Loja+0.00on par
Orense SC+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LDU Loja ↓

Orense SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

LDU Loja or draw
66%
LDU Loja or Orense SC
71%
Draw or Orense SC
63%

Winning margin

LDU Loja wins by 2+
16%
Orense SC wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

LDU Loja 1+ goals
69%
LDU Loja 2+ goals
32%
LDU Loja 3+ goals
11%
Orense SC 1+ goals
66%
Orense SC 2+ goals
30%
Orense SC 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

LDU Loja (draw refunded)
52%
Orense SC (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LDU Loja at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 40 matches

Orense SC away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.31 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LDU Loja attack 1.00 + Orense SC defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.16

Orense SC attack 1.19 + LDU Loja defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

LDU Loja scores more
37%
level
29%
Orense SC scores more
34%

LDU Loja at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "LDU Loja will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Pro Serie B: LDU Loja 1–1 Orense SC

LDU Loja and Orense SC drew 1-1 in Liga Pro Serie B on August 2, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne (Loja).