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LDU Loja vs CD Olmedo — Liga Pro Serie B 2018

LDU Loja
LDU Loja
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
CD Olmedo
CD Olmedo
7/21/2018Liga Pro Serie BLiga Pro Serie B · Round 23Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne (Loja)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

LDU Loja36%
×Draw30%
CD Olmedo34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

LDU Loja
1.04
CD Olmedo
1.01

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 40 home / 42 away

creates per match

LDU Loja
1.00
CD Olmedo
1.02

allows per match

LDU Loja
1.00
CD Olmedo
1.07

finishing

LDU Loja+0.00on par
CD Olmedo+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LDU Loja ↓

CD Olmedo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–113%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

LDU Loja or draw
66%
LDU Loja or CD Olmedo
70%
Draw or CD Olmedo
64%

Winning margin

LDU Loja wins by 2+
14%
CD Olmedo wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

LDU Loja 1+ goals
65%
LDU Loja 2+ goals
28%
LDU Loja 3+ goals
9%
CD Olmedo 1+ goals
64%
CD Olmedo 2+ goals
27%
CD Olmedo 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

LDU Loja (draw refunded)
51%
CD Olmedo (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LDU Loja at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 40 matches

CD Olmedo away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.07 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LDU Loja attack 1.00 + CD Olmedo defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.04

CD Olmedo attack 1.02 + LDU Loja defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

LDU Loja scores more
36%
level
30%
CD Olmedo scores more
34%

LDU Loja at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "LDU Loja will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Pro Serie B: LDU Loja 2–1 CD Olmedo

LDU Loja beat CD Olmedo 2-1 in Liga Pro Serie B on July 21, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne (Loja).