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LDU de Quito vs San José — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2019

LDU de Quito
LDU de Quito
FT
4 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
San José
San José
5/9/2019CONMEBOL LibertadoresCONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 6Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

LDU de Quito90%
×Draw8%
San José3%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

LDU de Quito
3.40
San José
0.50

LDU de Quito creates 580% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 4 away

creates per match

LDU de Quito
2.29
San José
0.25

allows per match

LDU de Quito
0.75
San José
4.50

finishing

LDU de Quito+0.00on par
San José+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LDU de Quito ↓

San José →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–14%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–16%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–014%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–012%
4–16%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (14%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

LDU de Quito or draw
97%
LDU de Quito or San José
92%
Draw or San José
10%

Winning margin

LDU de Quito wins by 2+
74%
San José wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

LDU de Quito 1+ goals
96%
LDU de Quito 2+ goals
84%
LDU de Quito 3+ goals
64%
San José 1+ goals
39%
San José 2+ goals
9%
San José 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

LDU de Quito (draw refunded)
97%
San José (draw refunded)
3%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LDU de Quito at home — creates 2.29, concedes 0.75 · 24 matches

San José away — creates 0.25, concedes 4.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LDU de Quito attack 2.29 + San José defence 4.50 → ÷2 → 3.40

San José attack 0.25 + LDU de Quito defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 90%?"

LDU de Quito scores more
90%
level
8%
San José scores more
3%

LDU de Quito at 90% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 90% does not mean "LDU de Quito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: LDU de Quito vs San José

LDU de Quito beat San José 4-0 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on May 9, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado in Quito.