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LDU de Quito vs Palmeiras — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2019

LDU de Quito
LDU de Quitoadvanced
FT
3 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Palmeiras
Palmeiras
10/24/2025CONMEBOL LibertadoresCONMEBOL Libertadores · Semi-finalsEstadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

LDU de Quito41%
×Draw25%
Palmeiras34%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

LDU de Quito
1.54
Palmeiras
1.39

LDU de Quito creates 11% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 42 away

creates per match

LDU de Quito
2.29
Palmeiras
2.02

allows per match

LDU de Quito
0.75
Palmeiras
0.79

finishing

LDU de Quito+0.00on par
Palmeiras+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LDU de Quito ↓

Palmeiras →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

LDU de Quito or draw
66%
LDU de Quito or Palmeiras
75%
Draw or Palmeiras
59%

Winning margin

LDU de Quito wins by 2+
20%
Palmeiras wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

LDU de Quito 1+ goals
79%
LDU de Quito 2+ goals
45%
LDU de Quito 3+ goals
20%
Palmeiras 1+ goals
75%
Palmeiras 2+ goals
40%
Palmeiras 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

LDU de Quito (draw refunded)
54%
Palmeiras (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LDU de Quito at home — creates 2.29, concedes 0.75 · 24 matches

Palmeiras away — creates 2.02, concedes 0.79 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LDU de Quito attack 2.29 + Palmeiras defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.54

Palmeiras attack 2.02 + LDU de Quito defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

LDU de Quito scores more
41%
level
25%
Palmeiras scores more
34%

LDU de Quito at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "LDU de Quito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: LDU de Quito vs Palmeiras

LDU de Quito beat Palmeiras 3-0 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on October 24, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado in Quito.