LDU de Quito vs Mirassol — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2019
Mirassol score first in only 21% of matches
brightest fact of this match
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 3+ matches
LDU de Quito64%
Mirassol14%✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
LDU de Quito creates 155% more chances
Season form · 24 home / 3 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under54
- Over46
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No58
- Yes42
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
LDU de Quito ↓
Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
LDU de Quito at home — creates 2.29, concedes 0.75 · 24 matches
Mirassol away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
LDU de Quito attack 2.29 + Mirassol defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.81
Mirassol attack 0.67 + LDU de Quito defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.71
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 64%?"
LDU de Quito at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 64% does not mean "LDU de Quito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Insights
- LDU de Quito score first in only 24% of matches
- Mirassol win just 15% of their away games
- Top-of-the-table clash — LDU de Quito 1 vs Mirassol 2
- LDU de Quito matches are rarely goalless — only 3.4% end 0-0
- 37% of LDU de Quito’s goals come after the 75th minute
Based on historical data — not a prediction.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
LDU de Quito host Mirassol on Tuesday, 18 August 2026 at 20:00. The match is part of the CONMEBOL Libertadores 2019/2020 season.
LDU de Quito face Mirassol (CONMEBOL Libertadores)
CONMEBOL Libertadores returns with LDU de Quito hosting Mirassol. Match starts August 18, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.
LDU de Quito host Mirassol at Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado.
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.