LDU de Quito 2–0 Independiente del Valle

LDU de Quito

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Independiente del Valle

11/4/2023

Liga Pro · 2nd Round - 12Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 134+ matches

LDU de Quito45%

×Draw25%

Independiente del Valle30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LDU de QuitoExpected goals in this matchIndependiente del Valle

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.22

LDU de Quito

1.55

Independiente del Valle

1.22

LDU de Quito creates 27% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 134 away

1.93

creates per match

1.56

0.88

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

LDU de Quito

1.93

Independiente del Valle

1.56

allows per match

LDU de Quito

0.88

Independiente del Valle

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

LDU de Quito+0.00on par

Independiente del Valle+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LDU de Quito ↓

Independiente del Valle →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

LDU de Quito or draw

70%

LDU de Quito or Independiente del Valle

75%

Draw or Independiente del Valle

55%

Winning margin

LDU de Quito wins by 2+

23%

Independiente del Valle wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

LDU de Quito 1+ goals

79%

LDU de Quito 2+ goals

46%

LDU de Quito 3+ goals

20%

Independiente del Valle 1+ goals

70%

Independiente del Valle 2+ goals

34%

Independiente del Valle 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

LDU de Quito (draw refunded)

60%

Independiente del Valle (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LDU de Quito at home — creates 1.93, concedes 0.88 · 134 matches

Independiente del Valle away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.17 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LDU de Quito attack 1.93 + Independiente del Valle defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.55

Independiente del Valle attack 1.56 + LDU de Quito defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

LDU de Quito scores more

45%

level

25%

Independiente del Valle scores more

30%

LDU de Quito at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "LDU de Quito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff