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Independiente del Valle vs LDU de Quito — Liga Pro 2026

Independiente del Valle
Independiente del Valle
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
LDU de Quito
LDU de Quito
12/10/2025Liga ProLiga Pro · Championship Group - 3Estadio Banco Guayaquil

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 134+ matches

Independiente del Valle46%
×Draw26%
LDU de Quito28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Independiente del Valle
1.46
LDU de Quito
1.08

Independiente del Valle creates 35% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 136 away

creates per match

Independiente del Valle
1.78
LDU de Quito
1.37

allows per match

Independiente del Valle
0.78
LDU de Quito
1.15

finishing

Independiente del Valle+0.00on par
LDU de Quito+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente del Valle ↓

LDU de Quito →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Independiente del Valle or draw
72%
Independiente del Valle or LDU de Quito
74%
Draw or LDU de Quito
54%

Winning margin

Independiente del Valle wins by 2+
22%
LDU de Quito wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Independiente del Valle 1+ goals
77%
Independiente del Valle 2+ goals
43%
Independiente del Valle 3+ goals
18%
LDU de Quito 1+ goals
66%
LDU de Quito 2+ goals
29%
LDU de Quito 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Independiente del Valle (draw refunded)
62%
LDU de Quito (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente del Valle at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.78 · 134 matches

LDU de Quito away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.15 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente del Valle attack 1.78 + LDU de Quito defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.46

LDU de Quito attack 1.37 + Independiente del Valle defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Independiente del Valle scores more
46%
level
26%
LDU de Quito scores more
28%

Independiente del Valle at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Independiente del Valle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Pro: Independiente del Valle 0–0 LDU de Quito

Independiente del Valle and LDU de Quito drew 0-0 in Liga Pro on December 10, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Banco Guayaquil in Quito.