LDU de Quito 2–2 Independiente del Valle

LDU de Quito

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Independiente del Valle

J. Anangonó 81'

M. Hoyos 40'

J. Chávez 16'

M. Angulo 14'

9/17/2022

Liga Pro · 2nd Round - 11Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

LDU de Quito27%

×Draw26%

Independiente del Valle47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LDU de QuitoExpected goals in this matchIndependiente del Valle

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.05

1.47

LDU de Quito

1.05

Independiente del Valle

1.47

Independiente del Valle creates 40% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

1.46

creates per match

2.02

0.92

allows per match

0.65

creates per match

LDU de Quito

1.46

Independiente del Valle

2.02

allows per match

LDU de Quito

0.92

Independiente del Valle

0.65

-0.03on par

finishing

-0.02on par

finishing

LDU de Quito-0.03on par

Independiente del Valle-0.02on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LDU de Quito ↓

Independiente del Valle →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–112%

0–29%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

LDU de Quito or draw

53%

LDU de Quito or Independiente del Valle

74%

Draw or Independiente del Valle

73%

Winning margin

LDU de Quito wins by 2+

10%

Independiente del Valle wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

LDU de Quito 1+ goals

65%

LDU de Quito 2+ goals

28%

LDU de Quito 3+ goals

9%

Independiente del Valle 1+ goals

77%

Independiente del Valle 2+ goals

43%

Independiente del Valle 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

LDU de Quito (draw refunded)

37%

Independiente del Valle (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LDU de Quito at home — creates 1.46, concedes 0.92 · 7 matches

Independiente del Valle away — creates 2.02, concedes 0.65 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LDU de Quito attack 1.46 + Independiente del Valle defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 1.05

Independiente del Valle attack 2.02 + LDU de Quito defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

LDU de Quito scores more

27%

level

26%

Independiente del Valle scores more

47%

Independiente del Valle at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Independiente del Valle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

M. Angulo↳ J. Sornoza

16'

J. Chávez↳ C. Pellerano

27'

Ó. Zambrano← L. Caicedo

40'

47'

51'

65'

65'

67'

67'

75'

F. Gaibor← J. Sornoza

75'

J. Bauman← C. Pellerano

77'

A. López← D. Romero

77'

J. Anangonó← M. Hoyos

81'

J. Anangonó↳ L. Piovi

88'

Jaimen Ayoví← L. Díaz

88'

A. Minda← J. Chávez

89'

Lorenzo Faravelli

LDU

Independiente

1

5

2

14

6

⚽

▼

Chávez

16

A

▼

Pellerano

8

Faravelli

10

A

▼

Sornoza

13

Fernández

53

⚽

▼

Angulo

19

▼

Díaz

22

Domínguez

4

▼

6

24

2

13

A

▼

Romero

11

⚽

▼

Hoyos

18

A

Piovi

10

Alvarado

21

▼

González

7

▼

Molina

Manager: É. Méndez

27'▲Ó. Zambrano←▼L. Caicedo

67'▲D. Luna←▼S. González

67'▲L. Gamba←▼T. Molina

77'▲A. López←▼D. Romero

77'▲J. Anangonó←▼M. Hoyos

LDU de Quito substitutes

35Zambrano30Luna9Gamba25López38Anangonó23Gabbarini42Hernández17Nnachi5Espinoza20Cruz36Castillo

Manager: M. Anselmi

65'▲J. Ortiz←▼M. Angulo

75'▲F. Gaibor←▼J. Sornoza

75'▲J. Bauman←▼C. Pellerano

88'▲Jaimen Ayoví←▼L. Díaz

88'▲A. Minda←▼J. Chávez

Independiente del Valle substitutes

80Ortiz7Gaibor32Bauman17Ayoví50Minda11Cabezas23Ortíz51Medina22Pinargote54Mercado3Mina52Herrera

Liga Pro: LDU de Quito 2–2 Independiente del Valle

LDU de Quito and Independiente del Valle drew 2-2 in Liga Pro on September 17, 2022.

Goals: M. Angulo (14'), J. Chávez (16'), M. Hoyos (40'), J. Anangonó (81').

The match was played at Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado in Quito.

LDU de Quito vs Independiente del Valle — Liga Pro 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Liga Pro: LDU de Quito 2–2 Independiente del Valle