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LDU de Quito vs Fuerza Amarilla — Liga Pro 2018

LDU de Quito
LDU de Quito
FT
5 – 2
HT: 3 – 1
Fuerza Amarilla
Fuerza Amarilla
11/2/2019Liga ProLiga Pro · Round 30Estadio de Liga Deportiva Universitaria (Quito)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

LDU de Quito72%
×Draw17%
Fuerza Amarilla10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

LDU de Quito
2.30
Fuerza Amarilla
0.74

LDU de Quito creates 211% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 15 away

creates per match

LDU de Quito
1.93
Fuerza Amarilla
0.60

allows per match

LDU de Quito
0.88
Fuerza Amarilla
2.67

finishing

LDU de Quito+0.00on par
Fuerza Amarilla+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LDU de Quito ↓

Fuerza Amarilla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

LDU de Quito or draw
90%
LDU de Quito or Fuerza Amarilla
83%
Draw or Fuerza Amarilla
28%

Winning margin

LDU de Quito wins by 2+
49%
Fuerza Amarilla wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

LDU de Quito 1+ goals
90%
LDU de Quito 2+ goals
67%
LDU de Quito 3+ goals
40%
Fuerza Amarilla 1+ goals
52%
Fuerza Amarilla 2+ goals
17%
Fuerza Amarilla 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

LDU de Quito (draw refunded)
87%
Fuerza Amarilla (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LDU de Quito at home — creates 1.93, concedes 0.88 · 134 matches

Fuerza Amarilla away — creates 0.60, concedes 2.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LDU de Quito attack 1.93 + Fuerza Amarilla defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.30

Fuerza Amarilla attack 0.60 + LDU de Quito defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

LDU de Quito scores more
72%
level
17%
Fuerza Amarilla scores more
10%

LDU de Quito at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "LDU de Quito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: LDU de Quito vs Fuerza Amarilla

LDU de Quito beat Fuerza Amarilla 5-2 in Liga Pro on November 2, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio de Liga Deportiva Universitaria (Quito).