LDU de Quito vs Emelec: Preview & Prediction

LDU de Quito

Preview

20:00

Emelec

8/23/2026

Liga Pro · Round 26Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado

Big match

51%

LDU de Quito

model favours

51%25%24%

LDU de Quito score first in only 24% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

51%

under 2.5 goals

52%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 131+ matches

LDU de Quito51%

×Draw25%

Emelec24%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LDU de QuitoExpected goals in this matchEmelec

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.62

1.03

LDU de Quito

1.62

Emelec

1.03

LDU de Quito creates 57% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 131 away

1.91

creates per match

1.18

0.88

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

LDU de Quito

1.91

Emelec

1.18

allows per match

LDU de Quito

0.88

Emelec

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

LDU de Quito+0.00on par

Emelec+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LDU de Quito ↓

Emelec →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

LDU de Quito or draw

76%

LDU de Quito or Emelec

75%

Draw or Emelec

49%

Winning margin

LDU de Quito wins by 2+

27%

Emelec wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

LDU de Quito 1+ goals

80%

LDU de Quito 2+ goals

48%

LDU de Quito 3+ goals

22%

Emelec 1+ goals

64%

Emelec 2+ goals

28%

Emelec 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

LDU de Quito (draw refunded)

68%

Emelec (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LDU de Quito at home — creates 1.91, concedes 0.88 · 134 matches

Emelec away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.33 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LDU de Quito attack 1.91 + Emelec defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.62

Emelec attack 1.18 + LDU de Quito defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

LDU de Quito scores more

51%

level

25%

Emelec scores more

24%

LDU de Quito at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "LDU de Quito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

LDU de Quito win just 48% against the top half (vs 75% against the bottom)
LDU de Quito matches are rarely goalless — only 3.4% end 0-0
37% of LDU de Quito’s goals come after the 75th minute
Emelec outscore their xG (1.2 vs 0.8 expected)