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LDU de Quito vs Emelec — Liga Pro 2026

LDU de Quito
LDU de Quito
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Emelec
Emelec
7/12/2025Liga ProLiga Pro · Round 20Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 131+ matches

LDU de Quito51%
×Draw25%
Emelec24%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

LDU de Quito
1.62
Emelec
1.03

LDU de Quito creates 57% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 131 away

creates per match

LDU de Quito
1.91
Emelec
1.18

allows per match

LDU de Quito
0.88
Emelec
1.33

finishing

LDU de Quito+0.00on par
Emelec+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LDU de Quito ↓

Emelec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

LDU de Quito or draw
76%
LDU de Quito or Emelec
75%
Draw or Emelec
49%

Winning margin

LDU de Quito wins by 2+
27%
Emelec wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

LDU de Quito 1+ goals
80%
LDU de Quito 2+ goals
48%
LDU de Quito 3+ goals
22%
Emelec 1+ goals
64%
Emelec 2+ goals
28%
Emelec 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

LDU de Quito (draw refunded)
68%
Emelec (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LDU de Quito at home — creates 1.91, concedes 0.88 · 134 matches

Emelec away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.33 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LDU de Quito attack 1.91 + Emelec defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.62

Emelec attack 1.18 + LDU de Quito defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

LDU de Quito scores more
51%
level
25%
Emelec scores more
24%

LDU de Quito at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "LDU de Quito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Pro: LDU de Quito 2–0 Emelec

LDU de Quito beat Emelec 2-0 in Liga Pro on July 12, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado in Quito.