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LDU de Quito vs Emelec — Liga Pro 2026

LDU de Quito
LDU de Quito
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Emelec
Emelec
J. Quintero 53'
10/22/2023Liga ProLiga Pro · 2nd Round - 10Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

LDU de Quito53%
×Draw26%
Emelec21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

LDU de Quito
1.54
Emelec
0.86

LDU de Quito creates 79% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

creates per match

LDU de Quito
1.46
Emelec
0.80

allows per match

LDU de Quito
0.92
Emelec
1.63

finishing

LDU de Quito-0.03on par
Emelec+0.20scores more

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LDU de Quito ↓

Emelec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

LDU de Quito or draw
79%
LDU de Quito or Emelec
74%
Draw or Emelec
47%

Winning margin

LDU de Quito wins by 2+
28%
Emelec wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

LDU de Quito 1+ goals
79%
LDU de Quito 2+ goals
45%
LDU de Quito 3+ goals
20%
Emelec 1+ goals
58%
Emelec 2+ goals
21%
Emelec 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

LDU de Quito (draw refunded)
72%
Emelec (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LDU de Quito at home — creates 1.46, concedes 0.92 · 7 matches

Emelec away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.63 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LDU de Quito attack 1.46 + Emelec defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.54

Emelec attack 0.80 + LDU de Quito defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

LDU de Quito scores more
53%
level
26%
Emelec scores more
21%

LDU de Quito at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "LDU de Quito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4
R. AdéLDU de QuitoLDU de Quito · D
8.5

Match Events

33'
Anibal Chalá
53'
J. Quintero↳ R. Adé
64'
C. Villalba← J. Cevallos
64'
C. Valencia← J. Espinoza
64'
S. Sosa← D. García
73'
Alexis ZapataPenalty cancelled
77'
J. Hurtado← P. Guerrero
78'
Ó. Zambrano← M. Martínez
78'
L. Alzugaray← R. Ibarra
81'
S. González← A. Alvarado
81'
J. Sánchez← A. Zapata
82'
Samuel Sosa
85'
B. Angulo← J. Ayoví
90+1'
Sebastián González
90+1'
B. Ramírez← J. Julio

Possession

50%LDU

Shots

19LDU

Pass accuracy

51%LDU

Statistics

LDUEmelec
Overview
50%Possession50%
19Total Shots8
10Corners4
13Fouls7
Shots
19Total Shots8
5On Target2
9Off Target4
5Blocked2
11Inside Box4
8Outside Box4
Passing
50%Possession50%
401Total Passes402
342Accurate Passes333
85%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
2Saves4
Discipline
13Fouls7
1Yellow Cards2
1Offsides1

Liga Pro: LDU de Quito 1–0 Emelec

LDU de Quito beat Emelec 1-0 in Liga Pro on October 22, 2023.

Goals: J. Quintero (53').

LDU de Quito controlled possession (50%) and registered 19 shots to 8.

The match was played at Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado in Quito.