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LDU de Quito vs Delfin SC — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026

LDU de Quito
LDU de Quito
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Delfin SC
Delfin SC
L. Caicedo 90+2' (OG)
A. Alvarado 78'
J. Angulo 20'
L. Alzugaray 7'
3/8/2023CONMEBOL SudamericanaCONMEBOL Sudamericana · 1st RoundEstadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

LDU de Quito59%
×Draw22%
Delfin SC19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

LDU de Quito
1.87
Delfin SC
0.95

LDU de Quito creates 97% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 6 away

creates per match

LDU de Quito
2.07
Delfin SC
1.33

allows per match

LDU de Quito
0.57
Delfin SC
1.67

finishing

LDU de Quito+0.00on par
Delfin SC+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LDU de Quito ↓

Delfin SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

LDU de Quito or draw
81%
LDU de Quito or Delfin SC
78%
Draw or Delfin SC
41%

Winning margin

LDU de Quito wins by 2+
34%
Delfin SC wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

LDU de Quito 1+ goals
85%
LDU de Quito 2+ goals
56%
LDU de Quito 3+ goals
29%
Delfin SC 1+ goals
61%
Delfin SC 2+ goals
25%
Delfin SC 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

LDU de Quito (draw refunded)
76%
Delfin SC (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LDU de Quito at home — creates 2.07, concedes 0.57 · 14 matches

Delfin SC away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LDU de Quito attack 2.07 + Delfin SC defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.87

Delfin SC attack 1.33 + LDU de Quito defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

LDU de Quito scores more
59%
level
22%
Delfin SC scores more
19%

LDU de Quito at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "LDU de Quito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
L. AlzugarayLDU de QuitoLDU de Quito · F
8.5

Match Events

7'
L. Alzugaray
20'
J. Angulo
43'
J. W. Cuero Mercado
45+2'
C. Garcia
46'
N. Molina← M. Reyes
46'
J. Alman← R. Blanco
46'
A. Rodríguez← J. Ruíz
61'
J. Mina← N. Goitea
70'
Á. Gonzalez← R. Ibarra
71'
Juan Diego Rojas← R. Jaramillo
73'
R. Ade
78'
A. Alvarado↳ L. Alzugaray
81'
S. González← A. Alvarado
81'
J. Anangonó← J. Angulo
82'
M. Martínez← L. Piovi
85'
D. Luna← L. Alzugaray
90+2'
L. CaicedoOwn goal

Possession

70%LDU

Shots

23LDU

Pass accuracy

55%LDU

Statistics

LDUDelfin
Overview
70%Possession30%
23Total Shots8
7Corners4
10Fouls9
Shots
23Total Shots8
12On Target4
6Off Target4
5Blocked0
13Inside Box2
10Outside Box6
Passing
70%Possession30%
601Total Passes257
536Accurate Passes189
89%Pass Accuracy74%
Goalkeeping
4Saves9
Discipline
10Fouls9
1Yellow Cards2

Match Recap: LDU de Quito vs Delfin SC

LDU de Quito beat Delfin SC 4-0 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on March 8, 2023.

Goals: L. Alzugaray (7'), J. Angulo (20'), A. Alvarado (78'), L. Caicedo (90+2' o.g.).

LDU de Quito controlled possession (70%) and registered 23 shots to 8.

The match was played at Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado in Quito.