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Delfin SC vs LDU de Quito — Liga Pro 2026

Delfin SC
Delfin SC
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
LDU de Quito
LDU de Quito
7/6/2025Liga ProLiga Pro · Round 19Estadio Jocay

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 130+ matches

Delfin SC38%
×Draw27%
LDU de Quito34%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Delfin SC
1.26
LDU de Quito
1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 130 home / 136 away

creates per match

Delfin SC
1.37
LDU de Quito
1.37

allows per match

Delfin SC
0.99
LDU de Quito
1.15

finishing

Delfin SC+0.00on par
LDU de Quito+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Delfin SC ↓

LDU de Quito →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Delfin SC or draw
66%
Delfin SC or LDU de Quito
73%
Draw or LDU de Quito
62%

Winning margin

Delfin SC wins by 2+
17%
LDU de Quito wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Delfin SC 1+ goals
72%
Delfin SC 2+ goals
36%
Delfin SC 3+ goals
13%
LDU de Quito 1+ goals
69%
LDU de Quito 2+ goals
33%
LDU de Quito 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Delfin SC (draw refunded)
53%
LDU de Quito (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Delfin SC at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.99 · 130 matches

LDU de Quito away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.15 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Delfin SC attack 1.37 + LDU de Quito defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.26

LDU de Quito attack 1.37 + Delfin SC defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Delfin SC scores more
38%
level
27%
LDU de Quito scores more
34%

Delfin SC at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Delfin SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Delfin SC vs LDU de Quito

LDU de Quito beat Delfin SC 4-0 in Liga Pro on July 6, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Jocay in Manta.