LDU de Quito 3–0 Cesar Vallejo: Result & Stats

LDU de Quito

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Cesar Vallejo

L. Alzugaray 88'

A. Alvarado 76'

J. Julio 29'

6/30/2023

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 6Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

LDU de Quito73%

×Draw17%

Cesar Vallejo10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LDU de QuitoExpected goals in this matchCesar Vallejo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.29

0.70

LDU de Quito

2.29

Cesar Vallejo

0.70

LDU de Quito creates 227% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 6 away

2.07

creates per match

0.83

0.57

allows per match

2.50

creates per match

LDU de Quito

2.07

Cesar Vallejo

0.83

allows per match

LDU de Quito

0.57

Cesar Vallejo

2.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

LDU de Quito+0.00on par

Cesar Vallejo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LDU de Quito ↓

Cesar Vallejo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–17%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

LDU de Quito or draw

90%

LDU de Quito or Cesar Vallejo

83%

Draw or Cesar Vallejo

27%

Winning margin

LDU de Quito wins by 2+

49%

Cesar Vallejo wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

LDU de Quito 1+ goals

90%

LDU de Quito 2+ goals

66%

LDU de Quito 3+ goals

40%

Cesar Vallejo 1+ goals

50%

Cesar Vallejo 2+ goals

16%

Cesar Vallejo 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

LDU de Quito (draw refunded)

88%

Cesar Vallejo (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LDU de Quito at home — creates 2.07, concedes 0.57 · 14 matches

Cesar Vallejo away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LDU de Quito attack 2.07 + Cesar Vallejo defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.29

Cesar Vallejo attack 0.83 + LDU de Quito defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

LDU de Quito scores more

73%

level

17%

Cesar Vallejo scores more

10%

LDU de Quito at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "LDU de Quito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29

B. Ramírez

LDU de Quito · D

8.5

Match Events

29'

J. Julio↳ M. Martínez

31'

34'

45+2'

45+1'

50'

63'

A. Ramírez← F. Rodríguez

64'

S. González← R. Mina

64'

L. Alzugaray← J. Quintero

68'

J. Charcopa← J. Angulo

76'

A. Alvarado

78'

Á. Gonzalez← R. Ibarra

78'

D. Luna← J. Julio

78'

R. Quinteros← A. Fuentes

80'

S. González← J. Vélez

80'

88'

88'

90+4'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LDUCesar

Overview

65%Possession35%

42Total Shots11

11Corners5

10Fouls9

Shots

42Total Shots11

17On Target3

17Off Target5

8Blocked3

26Inside Box5

16Outside Box6

Passing

65%Possession35%

424Total Passes230

371Accurate Passes164

88%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

3Saves12

Discipline

10Fouls9

3Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

1Offsides1