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LDU de Quito vs Atletico Paranaense — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026

LDU de Quito
LDU de Quitoadvanced
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Atletico Paranaense
Atletico Paranaense
D. Reasco 87'
8/12/2021CONMEBOL SudamericanaCONMEBOL Sudamericana · Quarter-finalsEstadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

LDU de Quito46%
×Draw26%
Atletico Paranaense28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

LDU de Quito
1.45
Atletico Paranaense
1.07

LDU de Quito creates 36% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 12 away

creates per match

LDU de Quito
2.07
Atletico Paranaense
1.58

allows per match

LDU de Quito
0.57
Atletico Paranaense
0.83

finishing

LDU de Quito+0.00on par
Atletico Paranaense+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LDU de Quito ↓

Atletico Paranaense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

LDU de Quito or draw
72%
LDU de Quito or Atletico Paranaense
74%
Draw or Atletico Paranaense
54%

Winning margin

LDU de Quito wins by 2+
22%
Atletico Paranaense wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

LDU de Quito 1+ goals
77%
LDU de Quito 2+ goals
42%
LDU de Quito 3+ goals
18%
Atletico Paranaense 1+ goals
66%
Atletico Paranaense 2+ goals
29%
Atletico Paranaense 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

LDU de Quito (draw refunded)
62%
Atletico Paranaense (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LDU de Quito at home — creates 2.07, concedes 0.57 · 14 matches

Atletico Paranaense away — creates 1.58, concedes 0.83 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LDU de Quito attack 2.07 + Atletico Paranaense defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.45

Atletico Paranaense attack 1.58 + LDU de Quito defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

LDU de Quito scores more
46%
level
26%
Atletico Paranaense scores more
28%

LDU de Quito at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "LDU de Quito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
J. AlcivarLDU de QuitoLDU de Quito · M
7.6

Match Events

33'
Marcinho
39'
Nilson Angulo
46'
J. Arce← N. Angulo
59'
S. Scotto← L. Piovi
62'
Christian
63'
Léo Cittadini← Christian
70'
Renato Kayzer← Carlos Eduardo
76'
J. Kaprof← J. Alcivar
77'
D. Reasco← J. Julio
82'
Erick← Richard
82'
Fernando Canesin← D. Terans
82'
Márcio Azevedo← Abner
85'
A. Muñoz← M. Zunino
87'
D. Reasco↳ J. Kaprof
90'
Fernando Canesin

Possession

62%LDU

Shots

20LDU

Pass accuracy

53%LDU

Statistics

LDUAtletico
Overview
62%Possession38%
20Total Shots9
6Corners3
15Fouls12
Shots
20Total Shots9
5On Target3
6Off Target2
9Blocked4
7Inside Box4
13Outside Box5
Passing
62%Possession38%
473Total Passes298
413Accurate Passes231
87%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
3Saves4
Discipline
15Fouls12
1Yellow Cards3
1Offsides1

Match Recap: LDU de Quito vs Atletico Paranaense

LDU de Quito beat Atletico Paranaense 1-0 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on August 12, 2021.

Goals: D. Reasco (87').

LDU de Quito controlled possession (62%) and registered 20 shots to 9.

The match was played at Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado in Quito.