LDU de Quito 4–2 9 de Octubre: Result & Stats

LDU de Quito

FT

4 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

9 de Octubre

J. Julio 88'

C. Martínez 64'

A. Muñoz 33', 30'

M. Da Luz 62'

J. Fajardo 55'

2/20/2021

Liga Pro · 1st Round - 1Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

LDU de Quito57%

×Draw22%

9 de Octubre20%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LDU de QuitoExpected goals in this match9 de Octubre

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.87

1.02

LDU de Quito

1.87

9 de Octubre

1.02

LDU de Quito creates 83% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 30 away

1.91

creates per match

1.17

0.88

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

LDU de Quito

1.91

9 de Octubre

1.17

allows per match

LDU de Quito

0.88

9 de Octubre

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

LDU de Quito+0.00on par

9 de Octubre+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LDU de Quito ↓

9 de Octubre →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

LDU de Quito or draw

80%

LDU de Quito or 9 de Octubre

78%

Draw or 9 de Octubre

43%

Winning margin

LDU de Quito wins by 2+

33%

9 de Octubre wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

LDU de Quito 1+ goals

85%

LDU de Quito 2+ goals

56%

LDU de Quito 3+ goals

29%

9 de Octubre 1+ goals

64%

9 de Octubre 2+ goals

27%

9 de Octubre 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

LDU de Quito (draw refunded)

74%

9 de Octubre (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LDU de Quito at home — creates 1.91, concedes 0.88 · 134 matches

9 de Octubre away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.83 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LDU de Quito attack 1.91 + 9 de Octubre defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.87

9 de Octubre attack 1.17 + LDU de Quito defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

LDU de Quito scores more

57%

level

22%

9 de Octubre scores more

20%

LDU de Quito at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "LDU de Quito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'

A. Muñoz↳ C. Martínez

33'

A. Muñoz

45+2'

F. Guerra

46'

J. Quinteros← M. Zunino

55'

J. Fajardo↳ M. Da Luz

62'

M. Da Luz↳ D. Luna

64'

C. Martínez↳ J. Julio

71'

J. Cortéz← B. Oña

85'

J. Espinoza← J. Alcivar

85'

B. Arce← A. Muñoz

88'

J. Julio↳ J. Espinoza

89'

R. Fernandez

LDU

9

13

Recalde

18

Fernández

2

Becerra

10

A

Luna

16

Cazares

88

▼

Oña

38

Cetré

24

Gómez

77

⚽A

Luz

7

⚽

31

22

15

20

24

13

23

▼

Zunino

18

Piovi

29

⚽2

▼

Muñoz

10

⚽A

Julio

8

▼

Alcivar

19

⚽A

Martínez

Manager: P. Repetto

46'▲J. Quinteros←▼M. Zunino

85'▲J. Espinoza←▼J. Alcivar

85'▲B. Arce←▼A. Muñoz

LDU de Quito substitutes

14Quinteros28Espinoza11Arce6Ayala27Troya4Caicedo12Viveros3Cabeza2Ventura16Reasco

Manager: J. León

71'▲J. Cortéz←▼B. Oña

9 de Octubre substitutes

17Cortéz11Viera23Valverde8Cabezas25Lucas14Jaramillo37Arboleda32Usca20Guichón26Medina