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LCS vs Lioli — League #962 2026

LCS
LCS
FT
1 – 1
Lioli
Lioli
3/10/2024League #962League #962 · Round 22LCS-Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

LCS13%
×Draw31%
Lioli56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

LCS
0.42
Lioli
1.20

Lioli creates 186% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

creates per match

LCS
0.25
Lioli
1.40

allows per match

LCS
1.00
Lioli
0.60

finishing

LCS+0.00on par
Lioli+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Under
  • Under78
  • Over22

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

76%No
  • No76
  • Yes24

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LCS ↓

Lioli →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–020%
0–124%
0–214%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–02%
2–12%
2–21%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (24%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
80%20%1.5
48%52%2.5
22%78%3.5
8%92%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

LCS or draw
44%
LCS or Lioli
69%
Draw or Lioli
87%

Winning margin

LCS wins by 2+
2%
Lioli wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

LCS 1+ goals
34%
LCS 2+ goals
7%
LCS 3+ goals
1%
Lioli 1+ goals
70%
Lioli 2+ goals
34%
Lioli 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

LCS (draw refunded)
19%
Lioli (draw refunded)
81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
14%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LCS at home — creates 0.25, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Lioli away — creates 1.40, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LCS attack 0.25 + Lioli defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.42

Lioli attack 1.40 + LCS defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

LCS scores more
13%
level
31%
Lioli scores more
56%

Lioli at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Lioli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #962: LCS 1–1 Lioli

LCS and Lioli drew 1-1 in League #962 on March 10, 2024.

The match was played at LCS-Field in Maseru.