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Lazio vs Salernitana — Serie A 2018

Lazio
Lazio
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
Salernitana
Salernitana
10/30/2022Serie ASerie A · Round 12Stadio Olimpico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Lazio58%
×Draw22%
Salernitana20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lazio
1.93
Salernitana
1.02

Lazio creates 89% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 38 away

creates per match

Lazio
1.89
Salernitana
0.89

allows per match

Lazio
1.15
Salernitana
1.97

finishing

Lazio+0.00on par
Salernitana+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lazio ↓

Salernitana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Lazio or draw
80%
Lazio or Salernitana
78%
Draw or Salernitana
42%

Winning margin

Lazio wins by 2+
34%
Salernitana wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Lazio 1+ goals
85%
Lazio 2+ goals
57%
Lazio 3+ goals
30%
Salernitana 1+ goals
64%
Salernitana 2+ goals
27%
Salernitana 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Lazio (draw refunded)
75%
Salernitana (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lazio at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.15 · 136 matches

Salernitana away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.97 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lazio attack 1.89 + Salernitana defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.93

Salernitana attack 0.89 + Lazio defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Lazio scores more
58%
level
22%
Salernitana scores more
20%

Lazio at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Lazio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lazio vs Salernitana

Salernitana beat Lazio 3-1 in Serie A on October 30, 2022.

The match was played at Stadio Olimpico in Roma.