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Lazio vs Monza — Serie A 2018

Lazio
Lazio
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Monza
Monza
9/23/2023Serie ASerie A · Round 5Stadio Olimpico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Lazio42%
×Draw26%
Monza32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lazio
1.47
Monza
1.26

Lazio creates 17% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 6 away

creates per match

Lazio
1.37
Monza
1.23

allows per match

Lazio
1.29
Monza
1.57

finishing

Lazio+0.09on par
Monza+0.44scores more

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lazio ↓

Monza →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Lazio or draw
68%
Lazio or Monza
74%
Draw or Monza
58%

Winning margin

Lazio wins by 2+
20%
Monza wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Lazio 1+ goals
77%
Lazio 2+ goals
43%
Lazio 3+ goals
18%
Monza 1+ goals
72%
Monza 2+ goals
36%
Monza 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Lazio (draw refunded)
56%
Monza (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lazio at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.29 · 24 matches

Monza away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.57 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lazio attack 1.37 + Monza defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.47

Monza attack 1.23 + Lazio defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Lazio scores more
42%
level
26%
Monza scores more
32%

Lazio at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Lazio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lazio vs Monza

Lazio and Monza drew 1-1 in Serie A on September 23, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio Olimpico in Roma.