Lazio 2–1 Marseille: Result & Stats

Lazio

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Marseille

J. Correa 55'

M. Parolo 45+1'

F. Thauvin 60'

11/8/2018

UEFA Europa League · Group Stage - 4Stadio Olimpico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Lazio56%

×Draw23%

Marseille21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LazioExpected goals in this matchMarseille

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.04

Lazio

1.83

Marseille

1.04

Lazio creates 76% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 6 away

1.50

creates per match

1.00

1.07

allows per match

2.17

creates per match

Lazio

1.50

Marseille

1.00

allows per match

Lazio

1.07

Marseille

2.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lazio+0.00on par

Marseille+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lazio ↓

Marseille →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Lazio or draw

79%

Lazio or Marseille

77%

Draw or Marseille

44%

Winning margin

Lazio wins by 2+

32%

Marseille wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Lazio 1+ goals

84%

Lazio 2+ goals

54%

Lazio 3+ goals

28%

Marseille 1+ goals

65%

Marseille 2+ goals

28%

Marseille 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Lazio (draw refunded)

72%

Marseille (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lazio at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.07 · 14 matches

Marseille away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lazio attack 1.50 + Marseille defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.83

Marseille attack 1.00 + Lazio defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Lazio scores more

56%

level

23%

Marseille scores more

21%

Lazio at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Lazio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

C. Immobile

Lazio · F

8.1

Match Events

22'

Lucas Ocampos

26'

Wallace dos Santos

39'

Florian Thauvin

45+1'

M. Parolo↳ C. Immobile

52'

Adil Rami

55'

J. Correa↳ C. Immobile

57'

Bastos← Wallace

60'

F. Thauvin↳ M. Sanson

69'

D. Payet← M. Sanson

70'

S. Milinković-Savić← V. Berisha

79'

B. Sarr← A. Rami

82'

Luis Alberto← J. Correa

82'

K. Mitroglou← F. Thauvin

83'

Sergej Milinković-Savić

87'

Clinton N'Jie

88'

Kevin Strootman

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LazioMarseille

Overview

41%Possession59%

7Total Shots15

3Corners6

8Fouls12

Shots

7Total Shots15

6On Target5

1Off Target5

0Blocked5

6Inside Box7

1Outside Box8

Passing

41%Possession59%

421Total Passes595

328Accurate Passes518

78%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

5Saves4

Discipline

8Fouls12

2Yellow Cards5

0Red Cards0

6Offsides3