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Lazio vs Lecce — Serie A 2018

Lazio
Lazio
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Lecce
Lecce
5/12/2023Serie ASerie A · Round 35Stadio Olimpico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 24+ matches

Lazio48%
×Draw26%
Lecce26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lazio
1.49
Lecce
1.02

Lazio creates 46% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 32 away

creates per match

Lazio
1.37
Lecce
0.74

allows per match

Lazio
1.29
Lecce
1.60

finishing

Lazio+0.09on par
Lecce-0.18scores less

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lazio ↓

Lecce →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Lazio or draw
74%
Lazio or Lecce
74%
Draw or Lecce
52%

Winning margin

Lazio wins by 2+
24%
Lecce wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Lazio 1+ goals
77%
Lazio 2+ goals
44%
Lazio 3+ goals
19%
Lecce 1+ goals
64%
Lecce 2+ goals
27%
Lecce 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Lazio (draw refunded)
65%
Lecce (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lazio at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.29 · 24 matches

Lecce away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.60 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lazio attack 1.37 + Lecce defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.49

Lecce attack 0.74 + Lazio defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Lazio scores more
48%
level
26%
Lecce scores more
26%

Lazio at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Lazio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lazio vs Lecce

Lazio and Lecce drew 2-2 in Serie A on May 12, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio Olimpico in Roma.