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Lazio vs Lecce — Serie A 2026

Lazio
Lazio
FT
4 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Lecce
Lecce
Joaquín Correa 80', 30'
Ciro Immobile 78' (pen), 77' (pen)
Sergej Milinković-Savić 62'
Andrea La Mantia 85'
Gianluca Lapadula 40'
11/10/2019Serie ASerie A · Round 12Stadio Olimpico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 33+ matches

Lazio47%
×Draw26%
Lecce26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lazio
1.45
Lecce
1.01

Lazio creates 44% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 34 away

creates per match

Lazio
1.32
Lecce
0.73

allows per match

Lazio
1.29
Lecce
1.57

finishing

Lazio+0.10scores more
Lecce-0.20scores less

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lazio ↓

Lecce →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Lazio or draw
74%
Lazio or Lecce
74%
Draw or Lecce
53%

Winning margin

Lazio wins by 2+
23%
Lecce wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Lazio 1+ goals
77%
Lazio 2+ goals
42%
Lazio 3+ goals
18%
Lecce 1+ goals
64%
Lecce 2+ goals
27%
Lecce 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Lazio (draw refunded)
64%
Lecce (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lazio at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.29 · 33 matches

Lecce away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.57 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lazio attack 1.32 + Lecce defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.45

Lecce attack 0.73 + Lazio defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Lazio scores more
47%
level
26%
Lecce scores more
26%

Lazio at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Lazio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
Joaquín CorreaLazioLazio · F
9.0

Match Events

4'
Marco Mancosu
30'
Joaquín Correa↳ Luis Alberto
34'
Lucas Leiva
40'
Gianluca Lapadula↳ Luca Rossettini
51'
Danilo Cataldi← Lucas Leiva
59'
Gianluca Lapadula
62'
Sergej Milinković-Savić↳ Francesco Acerbi
67'
Ciro Immobile
67'
Khouma BabacarMissed penalty
69'
Fabio Lucioni
70'
Evgen Shakhov← Žan Majer
72'
Bastos← Patric
73'
Andrea La Mantia← Khouma Babacar
77'
Ciro ImmobilePenalty
78'
Ciro ImmobilePenalty
80'
Joaquín Correa↳ Ciro Immobile
85'
Andrea La Mantia↳ Jacopo Petriccione
86'
Valon Berisha← Joaquín Correa
86'
Andrea Rispoli← Biagio Meccariello

Possession

56%Lazio

Shots

24Lazio

Pass accuracy

51%Lazio

Statistics

LazioLecce
Overview
56%Possession44%
24Total Shots19
9Corners3
8Fouls12
Shots
24Total Shots19
7On Target10
12Off Target7
5Blocked2
17Inside Box10
7Outside Box9
Passing
56%Possession44%
484Total Passes387
423Accurate Passes318
87%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
8Saves3
Discipline
8Fouls12
2Yellow Cards3
1Offsides1

Lazio 4 – 2 Lecce

Lazio beat Lecce 4-2 in Serie A on November 10, 2019.

Goals: Joaquín Correa (30', 80'), Gianluca Lapadula (40'), Sergej Milinković-Savić (62'), Ciro Immobile (77' pen, 78' pen), Andrea La Mantia (85').

Lazio controlled possession (56%) and registered 24 shots to 19.

The match was played at Stadio Olimpico in Roma.