Lazio 2–2 Club Brugge KV: Result & Stats

Lazio

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Club Brugge KV

C. Immobile 27' (pen)

J. Correa 12'

H. Vanaken 76'

R. Vormer 15'

12/8/2020

UEFA Champions League · Group F - 6Stadio Olimpico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Lazio50%

×Draw22%

Club Brugge KV28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LazioExpected goals in this matchClub Brugge KV

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

1.36

Lazio

1.90

Club Brugge KV

1.36

Lazio creates 40% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 25 away

2.00

creates per match

1.40

1.33

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Lazio

2.00

Club Brugge KV

1.40

allows per match

Lazio

1.33

Club Brugge KV

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lazio+0.00on par

Club Brugge KV+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lazio ↓

Club Brugge KV →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Lazio or draw

72%

Lazio or Club Brugge KV

78%

Draw or Club Brugge KV

50%

Winning margin

Lazio wins by 2+

28%

Club Brugge KV wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Lazio 1+ goals

85%

Lazio 2+ goals

56%

Lazio 3+ goals

29%

Club Brugge KV 1+ goals

74%

Club Brugge KV 2+ goals

39%

Club Brugge KV 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Lazio (draw refunded)

64%

Club Brugge KV (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lazio at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

Club Brugge KV away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.80 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lazio attack 2.00 + Club Brugge KV defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.90

Club Brugge KV attack 1.40 + Lazio defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Lazio scores more

50%

level

22%

Club Brugge KV scores more

28%

Lazio at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Lazio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25

R. Vormer

Club Brugge KV · M

8.3

Match Events

2'

Eduard Sobol

12'

J. Correa

15'

R. Vormer

27'

C. ImmobilePenalty

36'

Wesley Hoedt

39'

Eduard Sobol

39'

Eduard Sobol

42'

S. Deli← N. Lang

46'

Ş. Radu← W. Hoedt

75'

J. Akpro← Luis Alberto

75'

F. Caicedo← C. Immobile

75'

G. Escalante← Lucas Leiva

76'

H. Vanaken↳ R. Vormer

77'

M. Rits← É. Balanta

84'

I. Van der Brempt← Clinton Mata

84'

D. Okereke← K. Diatta

86'

Andreas Pereira← J. Correa

90'

Adam Marušić

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LazioClub

Overview

51%Possession49%

15Total Shots8

2Corners4

12Fouls15

Shots

15Total Shots8

8On Target3

4Off Target4

3Blocked1

12Inside Box4

3Outside Box4

Passing

51%Possession49%

515Total Passes467

441Accurate Passes379

86%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

1Saves6

Discipline

12Fouls15

2Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1

1Offsides1