Lazio 1–0 CFR 1907 Cluj: Result & Stats

Lazio

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

CFR 1907 Cluj

J. Correa 24'

11/28/2019

UEFA Europa League · Group Stage - 5Stadio Olimpico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Lazio53%

×Draw27%

CFR 1907 Cluj20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LazioExpected goals in this matchCFR 1907 Cluj

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

0.74

Lazio

1.42

CFR 1907 Cluj

0.74

Lazio creates 92% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 12 away

1.50

creates per match

0.42

1.07

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Lazio

1.50

CFR 1907 Cluj

0.42

allows per match

Lazio

1.07

CFR 1907 Cluj

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lazio+0.00on par

CFR 1907 Cluj+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lazio ↓

CFR 1907 Cluj →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Lazio or draw

80%

Lazio or CFR 1907 Cluj

73%

Draw or CFR 1907 Cluj

47%

Winning margin

Lazio wins by 2+

27%

CFR 1907 Cluj wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Lazio 1+ goals

76%

Lazio 2+ goals

41%

Lazio 3+ goals

17%

CFR 1907 Cluj 1+ goals

52%

CFR 1907 Cluj 2+ goals

17%

CFR 1907 Cluj 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Lazio (draw refunded)

73%

CFR 1907 Cluj (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lazio at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.07 · 14 matches

CFR 1907 Cluj away — creates 0.42, concedes 1.33 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lazio attack 1.50 + CFR 1907 Cluj defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.42

CFR 1907 Cluj attack 0.42 + Lazio defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Lazio scores more

53%

level

27%

CFR 1907 Cluj scores more

20%

Lazio at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Lazio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24

S. Proto

Lazio · G

8.2

Match Events

24'

J. Correa↳ B. Adekanye

45'

Damjan Đoković

56'

Bobby Adekanye

62'

C. Deac← M. Bordeianu

65'

F. Caicedo← B. Adekanye

65'

L. Traoré← A. Păun

67'

Lacina Traoré

73'

M. Sušić← I. Peteleu

75'

S. Lulić← Jony

80'

Patric← Luis Alberto

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LazioCFR

Overview

63%Possession37%

11Total Shots15

5Corners7

14Fouls12

Shots

11Total Shots15

1On Target3

8Off Target8

2Blocked4

5Inside Box10

6Outside Box5

Passing

63%Possession37%

594Total Passes334

507Accurate Passes239

85%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

4Saves0

Discipline

14Fouls12

1Yellow Cards2

4Offsides2