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Lazio vs Celtic — UEFA Champions League 2026

Lazio
Lazio
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Celtic
Celtic
11/28/2023UEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions League · Group E - 5Stadio Olimpico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Lazio50%
×Draw24%
Celtic27%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lazio
1.75
Celtic
1.22

Lazio creates 43% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 10 away

creates per match

Lazio
2.00
Celtic
1.10

allows per match

Lazio
1.33
Celtic
1.50

finishing

Lazio+0.00on par
Celtic+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lazio ↓

Celtic →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Lazio or draw
73%
Lazio or Celtic
76%
Draw or Celtic
50%

Winning margin

Lazio wins by 2+
27%
Celtic wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Lazio 1+ goals
83%
Lazio 2+ goals
52%
Lazio 3+ goals
25%
Celtic 1+ goals
70%
Celtic 2+ goals
34%
Celtic 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Lazio (draw refunded)
65%
Celtic (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lazio at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

Celtic away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.50 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lazio attack 2.00 + Celtic defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.75

Celtic attack 1.10 + Lazio defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Lazio scores more
50%
level
24%
Celtic scores more
27%

Lazio at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Lazio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Champions League: Lazio 2–0 Celtic

Lazio beat Celtic 2-0 in UEFA Champions League on November 28, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio Olimpico in Roma.