Lazio 1–0 Bayern Munich: Result & Stats

Lazio

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Bayern Munich

2/14/2024

UEFA Champions League · Round of 16Stadio Olimpico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Lazio31%

×Draw22%

Bayern Munich47%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LazioExpected goals in this matchBayern Munich

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.96

Lazio

1.54

Bayern Munich

1.96

Bayern Munich creates 27% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 39 away

2.00

creates per match

2.59

1.33

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Lazio

2.00

Bayern Munich

2.59

allows per match

Lazio

1.33

Bayern Munich

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lazio+0.00on par

Bayern Munich+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lazio ↓

Bayern Munich →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Lazio or draw

53%

Lazio or Bayern Munich

78%

Draw or Bayern Munich

69%

Winning margin

Lazio wins by 2+

14%

Bayern Munich wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Lazio 1+ goals

79%

Lazio 2+ goals

45%

Lazio 3+ goals

20%

Bayern Munich 1+ goals

86%

Bayern Munich 2+ goals

58%

Bayern Munich 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Lazio (draw refunded)

39%

Bayern Munich (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lazio at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

Bayern Munich away — creates 2.59, concedes 1.08 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lazio attack 2.00 + Bayern Munich defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.54

Bayern Munich attack 2.59 + Lazio defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Lazio scores more

31%

level

22%

Bayern Munich scores more

47%

Bayern Munich at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Bayern Munich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff