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Lazio U20 vs Internazionale U20 — Campionato Primavera - 1 2020

Lazio U20
Lazio U20
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Internazionale U20
Internazionale U20
8/25/2024Campionato Primavera - 1Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 2Stadio Mirko Fersini

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Lazio U2037%
×Draw25%
Internazionale U2038%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lazio U20
1.42
Internazionale U20
1.45

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 38 home / 40 away

creates per match

Lazio U20
1.53
Internazionale U20
1.55

allows per match

Lazio U20
1.34
Internazionale U20
1.30

finishing

Lazio U20+0.00on par
Internazionale U20+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lazio U20 ↓

Internazionale U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Lazio U20 or draw
62%
Lazio U20 or Internazionale U20
75%
Draw or Internazionale U20
63%

Winning margin

Lazio U20 wins by 2+
17%
Internazionale U20 wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Lazio U20 1+ goals
76%
Lazio U20 2+ goals
41%
Lazio U20 3+ goals
17%
Internazionale U20 1+ goals
77%
Internazionale U20 2+ goals
42%
Internazionale U20 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Lazio U20 (draw refunded)
49%
Internazionale U20 (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lazio U20 at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.34 · 38 matches

Internazionale U20 away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.30 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lazio U20 attack 1.53 + Internazionale U20 defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.42

Internazionale U20 attack 1.55 + Lazio U20 defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Lazio U20 scores more
37%
level
25%
Internazionale U20 scores more
38%

Internazionale U20 at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Internazionale U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lazio U20 vs Internazionale U20

Lazio U20 beat Internazionale U20 3-2 in Campionato Primavera - 1 on August 25, 2024.

The match was played at Stadio Mirko Fersini in Formello.